Those who see Floyd Mayweather losing on May 2. aren’t visualizing. They are fantasizing.
Such a loss is a unicorn with gloves. It never has happened before.“We
have the blueprint for beating Manny Pacquiao,” said trainer Tony
Morgan. “We don’t have the blueprint for beating Floyd Mayweather. I
think Floyd wins. Maybe even by knockout.”That is the majority opinion among those who study boxing frame-by-frame.
But
then Mayweather has not fought Pacquiao, and Pacquiao was supposed to
be beaten into pudding by Oscar De La Hoya, among others. Like any other
bout, this one will take on a shimmering life of its own when the bell
rings at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, provided any oxygen remains.
The variable is a familiar one. Right vs. left. Mayweather is
47-0 overall and 8-0 against lefties. But it took him half the fight
against Zab Judah to get settled, and that is the fight Pacquiao and
Freddie Roach, his trainer, have examined repeatedly.
Mayweather
got wobbled to the point that he put a hand on the canvas to remain
upright. That was not ruled a knockdown, and the fathers of both
fighters started scrapping when Judah hit Mayweather low.It
should be noted that Mayweather won that fight unanimously, by four, six
and 10 points on the judges’ cards. It was also seven years ago.Demetrius Corley and Jesus Chavez also had moments against Mayweather. Not minutes, but moments.
“A
southpaw throws all the structure out the window,” said trainer Joe
Goossen. “Judah gave Floyd all kinds of fits. Finally Floyd threw
everything out, put his hands up and marched him down. When he tried to
play chess, it didn’t work so well. He had to abandon that cute style.
“Floyd
will have to take a crash course. But Manny’s whole style is for
fighting right-handers. It’s a huge disadvantage,(for Mayweather), like
if you faced right-handed pitching all the time.”
Goossen says you can’t still bet against Mayweather. Rudy Hernandez does, without reservation.
“Manny’s
unorthodox, he’s shorter than Mayweather, and he’s quicker,” Hernandez
said. “You saw what he did to Antonio Margarito, who was taller than
Manny (a savage unanimous decision in 2010).
“Manny will come in
throwing lots of punches. Because of that, the rounds will be tough to
score. Mayweather will land more punches, but Manny might land the
harder ones. The judges might see things completely differently. So I
think it’s a split decision for Manny.”
Everyone agrees that Pacquiao has to be a tsunami in the first
round. Roach has always said a high-volume puncher can beat Mayweather.
Marcos Maidana tried it in his first fight with Mayweather and was in
charge until he tired.
Roach also says he has shown Pacquiao “all
the traps” Mayweather sets. “Manny can’t go chasing him around or he’ll
walk into something,” Roach said.
Abel Sanchez, Gennady Golovkin’s trainer, dismisses that.
“Floyd has been setting those traps for how many years now?” Sanchez said. “He’s seen everything that Manny can throw at him.”
Joel Diaz trained Tim Bradley in two fights with Pacquiao. He has seen enough to pick Mayweather.
“If
Manny gives Floyd time and space, Floyd will pick him apart,” Diaz
said. “And when Manny starts missing punches he starts to tie up a
little bit. You have to make him think. That slows him down.”
Diaz
learned that Pacquiao has discernible habits. A fake usually precedes
the right jab. A lift of the foot usually precedes the left. Diaz says
Juan Manuel Marquez read those signs in 2012 when he kayoed Pacquiao.
“Manny wants you to come to him,” Diaz said. “When that happens,
it’s like running into a train. Floyd won’t do that. For Manny to win he
has to attack and that’s going to be difficult for 12 rounds without
making a mistake.
“But the mistake people make is that they try to rip Floyd’s head off. They should go to the body instead.”
That
is where Pacquiao could make Mayweather feel unprecedented pain. And it
is where Pacquiao will risk exposure to Mayweather’s eternally
underrated right hand. Can he get in and get out as many times as it
will take? At age 36?
“The one factor in this fight is speed,” said Larry Merchant, the
longtime HBO commentator and newspaper columnist. “Each man has been
the faster man in each fight. At some point in this fight, one will
realize he isn’t the faster man anymore. So what happens then?”
It is the six-year, $400 million-plus question, to be answered in a town built on vision, driven by fantasy.
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